Finding value in player props is one of the most consistent ways to beat the books. Each week, FTN highlights three props identified by our proprietary model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times. Below, you’ll see the posted line, FTN’s projection, and the edge percentage, followed by context on why this prop makes sense. To see all the best props of the week, make sure you visit our prop tool.
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Prop Bet 1: Jaxson Dart Over 172.5 Passing Yards
-114, FanDuel Sportsbook
FTN Projection: 237
Edge: 29.8%
Jaxson Dart may have thrown for just 111 yards in his debut last week, but he showed impressive signs that better days are to come. While an aDOT of 6.3 yards isn’t high, it’s not as if Dart was throwing all of his passes at or near the line of scrimmage. The Chargers play 2-high coverage 51% of the time, the eighth-highest rate in the league, and Dart was smart to take what the defense gave him underneath. This week he faces a Saints defense that plays the fourth least 2-high coverage, which should open it up for Dart to attack downfield more. Plus he’s going from facing a Chargers defense, the third-best pass defense according to DVOA, to the Saints, who rank 29th.
Prop Bet 2: Cam Ward Over 17.5 Completions
-102, FanDuel Sportsbook
FTN Projection: 21.4
Edge: 25.8%
Even though Cam Ward is playing poorly right now, he’s had to throw a lot because the team is constantly losing. He’s 15th in the league in attempts, though his efficiency is obviously a work in progress, ranking 27th in completions. The Titans are underdogs by more than a TD, so Ward is likely to be in another negative gamescript. And the Cardinals defense, while mostly good against the pass, has allowed the most completions in the entire NFL this season. Even if Ward struggles again, we expect him to get here purely on volume.
Prop Bet 3: Joshua Palmer Over 14.5 Receiving Yards
-120, BetMGM
FTN Projection: 43.9
Edge: 23.5%
Despite having just 16 targets this year, Palmer is still a key piece of the offense. He runs 60% of the routes, third among WRs on the team. This game is expected to be high scoring, with an over/under of 49.5. In this explosive offense, Palmer can take one catch 15-plus yards, making this line too low for a full-time player.
Track Every Pick in Real Time
This article is just the start. FTN subscribers can:
FTN’s NFL Betting Resources
Final Thoughts
NFL betting is about finding small edges that add up over the course of the season. FTN’s Bet of the Week is just one example of the actionable insights our model delivers. Lock in this week’s best bet, and check back every week for the next free NFL best play.
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