Matt Zemek from TrojansWire previews USC vs. Michigan State
As we all know, Michigan State football is making its way out west this weekend to face USC just shy of midnight Eastern Time. There is a lot of intrigue around this game, as USC is now ranked in the AP poll (at No. 25), and MSU will want to prove that this year is different than last year despite a shaky 3-0 start.
To prepare for the game, we had Matt Zemek, Lead Writer of TrojansWire, give us the USC perspective on the game, which you can find below.
1. Picks and Over/Under (58 points): MSU vs. USC (-17.5)
Matt is taking Michigan State +17.5 in this one, although he thinks USC will win the game itself. He is also taking the over in this one, as 58 points seems low for these offensive-focused teams.
2. What should MSU fans know about this USC team?
This USC team is a work in progress. Last season’s team was a defense-first group with Miller Moss (who is now at Louisville) struggling to master the quarterback spot. Early in 2025, USC is an offense-first team. Quarterback Jayden Maiava isn’t a finished product, but he is already a lot more comfortable in Lincoln Riley’s offense than Moss was at any point in 2024. Maiava really needed four starts late in the 2024 season to begin to learn how to play the position. Riley has used those four games as a teaching tool in the offseason, and the early results are encouraging. No interceptions at Purdue is a good first step in Maiava’s development. Now, USC needs to see consistency in decision-making and processing reads. The defense is a concern. The secondary is banged up and shorthanded. Corners are not reacting well to the ball. USC also struggles to contain dual-threat QBs, making Aidan Chiles a real threat in this upcoming game.
3. Thoughts on this Michigan State team?
Michigan State, being coached by Jonathan Smith, should have an offensive game plan which will largely work against an inconsistent USC defense. Smith has undressed USC before, albeit not a D’Anton Lynn defense. Given the way the Trojans are playing on defense right now, MSU should be able to score at least 24 points, very probably more than that. The thing about Michigan State which should concern all Spartan fans is that the Boston College team MSU barely defeated — in overtime — just got soundly beaten by an awful Stanford side. That tells me the MSU win over BC was a lot less impressive than it initially seemed. The Spartans should struggle to contain Maiava and the USC offense, given that they struggled to contain Boston College.
4. How will this game play out?
There will be plenty of points in the Coliseum. USC probably scores in the 40s, and I wouldn’t be remotely surprised if MSU scored in the 30s. The over-under is way too low. More than the 17.5-point spread (where I lean MSU), I think the over is the best play in this game. If Michigan State wants to hold USC under 40 or (even more ideally) 35 points, it has to control the clock, probably with at least 35 minutes of possession if not 38 or 39. USC’s defense has struggled to get off the field, so MSU needs to be money on third and fourth downs. That’s the Spartans’ path to a possible upset, since their defense figures to be outgunned.
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