Each Monday, fantasy analyst Joel Smyth will go over 10 important stats that you may have overlooked from this week. After an unpredictable Week 6, what keys to fantasy success do you need to know that your leaguemates may have missed?
[Upgrade to Fantasy Plus and gain your edge in player projections and much more]
30.9
The amount of half-PPR fantasy points for Brian Thomas Jr. if Travis Hunter didn’t line up offside. In the third quarter, Trevor Lawrence hit Thomas for a second touchdown, this one for 54 receiving yards — and 0 fantasy points, as it was called back for Hunter lining up offside.
Fantasy managers still saw BTJ’s first double-digit fantasy game of the season, but how much will stick going forward?
Advertisement
The target share is the same, the routes are the same and overall, the usage is the same. None of it was ever the problem, though. The issue came more from QB chemistry, the mental game and playmaking. One stat shows that turnaround best: Catch rate. On his 25 targets over the first few weeks, Thomas had seven receptions, for a catch rate of 28%. Since that point, his catch rate has jumped back up to 74%, bringing in 17 of his 23 targets since Week 4.
It was a pass-heavy day versus a banged-up secondary, but again, it wasn’t just a solid day; it should’ve been a 30-point day. Thomas had one of the best rookie seasons in NFL history, and that doesn’t just disappear. It might not be perfect, but it’s coming back together for the sophomore receiver in a new offense. I fully expect the touchdowns to continue and the fantasy points to keep coming after his poor start to the season.
< 5
The amount of air yards on six of seven targets for Travis Hunter on Sunday. Outside of one target 26 yards downfield, Hunter had -1 air yards on his other six targets as his expanded role left us wanting more. Hunter led the team with a career-high 44 routes; the playing time is not a problem. This is now the fifth straight week where his route share has improved, but the usage when he’s on the field continues to plague his potential.
Combine a rookie learning a complicated offense with a player also practicing on defense and a limited role as a short-area slot receiver, the issues make sense. When Hunter has run routes of five or more yards downfield, he has a low 35.7% catch rate from Lawrence. Even a struggling BTJ sits at 51.3%. With no downfield targets has also come a lack of red-zone usage, with only three targets in the red area this season, including just one in the last four games. For now, even with solid playing time, Hunter isn’t startable until he’s used as more than a glorified gadget guy.
Advertisement
35-12
The Chargers’ RB snaps in favor of Kimani Vidal once he broke off a 38-yard run. Before that moment at the end of the first quarter, Hassan Haskins and Vidal had eight snaps each. Vidal’s hot hand got hotter as he continued to provide chunk plays for a struggling Chargers offense. In his first start of the season, Vidal had four runs over 10 yards to Haskins’ zero, leading the way with 21 touches — and 21 fantasy points.
The Dolphins entered Sunday ranked 31st in yards per carry allowed this season. It won’t be as easy going forward, but with the Chargers’ pass-heavy attack, Vidal’s secured passing-game role is nearly as valuable. Backup running backs aren’t to be fully trusted, but as we’ve seen already with Rico Dowdle and Rachaad White, their value can save a failing season.
82.6%
De’Von Achane’s percentage of RB touches since Ollie Gordon II’s Week 3 (mini) breakout, the third-highest in the NFL. The NFL’s smallest running back is getting elite volume for a second straight year. In Week 3, Gordon was given nine of 21 carries, including both goal-line attempts. Since that point, he has 11 of 57, with both goal-line attempts sticking with Achane.
Advertisement
We’re six games in, and Achane has yet to have a game under 16 points in PPR leagues. It may not be consistent in how it happens, but it’s consistent. If you give the speedster enough touches, he is bound to break one eventually. He’s atop the RB boards in a variety of categories, including second in touchdowns, second in targets, second in routes, ninth in touches and finally, third in fantasy points. It may not be normal, but Achane’s elite volume and talent can result in a top-five fantasy finish this season.
28.4%
Evan Engram’s targets per route since returning from injury. The Broncos’ passing game has been anything but consistent, yet, with a lack of solid fantasy TEs, Engram can emerge as a solid option in the coming weeks. Engram has been dealing with injuries since Week 1, leading to low snaps and overall production. However, when Engram is on the field, we’re seeing him get the volume we once saw.
In 2023, Engram had the second-most receptions by a TE in history with 114 on 143 targets while with the Jaguars. His targets per route that year were 23.4%. This season it’s at 24.3%, with an uptick over the last three games. His limited snaps are the reason for his modest fantasy production compared to his usage, as all three Broncos TEs are between 83-91 snaps played since Week 4.
Advertisement
Jake Ferguson and Tyler Warren are the only TEs with a higher targets per route run this season. If Engram’s snaps can get anywhere in the same stratosphere as theirs, he can be a fantasy TE1, too.
29
Snaps for Samaje Perine in back-to-back weeks, 46.8% in each. After a slow start to the season for Chase Brown, the Bengals have gone further away from the bellcow role for their young running back. Perine had a season-high 42.1% of RB touches in Week 6 with three of five RB targets from Joe Flacco. The Bengals offense looked improved under their new quarterback, but not good enough to support an RB who’s not receiving nearly 100% of the RB volume.
Once Brown became the starter last season, he averaged 6.8 targets per game, the most among RBs. That has fallen to 4.0 in 2025 in a far less efficient offense. The hope with Flacco coming in was an overly high rate of targets going to RB. Both Joe Burrow and Jake Browning had 17% of their targets go to RBs, with Flacco’s Week 6 being down to 11%.
Advertisement
Going in the wrong direction.
It’s an improvement for Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, who received 50% of Flacco’s targets, but Brown remains far from reliable.
48.4
Half-PPR receiving fantasy points provided by Joe Flacco. Jake Browning’s average as a starter was 33.7. It wasn’t Joe Burrow, but it was better. The most important factor was previously mentioned, being that 20 of the 40 targeted pass attempts went to either Chase or Higgins, an increase for both star wide receivers compared to the last few weeks.
One concern entering the week was that, despite playing behind a bad offensive line in Cleveland, Flacco was holding onto the ball much longer than the average NFL QB. In Week 6, nobody got the ball out faster. The new Bengals QB took one sack against one of the best pass rushes in the league. The overall numbers were still poor overall, but with the high volume going to the correct people, it can keep Chase productive in fantasy and provide some hope for Higgins.
Advertisement
(WR)4
Kendrick Bourne over the last two weeks. Most fantasy teams in 2025 look like the 49ers, plagued by injuries. Bourne is here to help both. The nine-year vet has shown spurts of fantasy success before, but it has never fully stuck. But I think this is for real … especially if Mac Jones is under center. The backup chemistry is there, and the trust from coaches is too. With so many injuries in San Francisco, there are plenty of targets to go around.
With Kyle Shanahan, those targets are some of the most valuable in fantasy football. The 49ers coach hasn’t had the league’s best at quarterback, but San Francisco still leads the NFL in fantasy points per target since 2019. If a player has any talent whatsoever, he will dominate in fantasy when given volume in the Shanahan offense. Bourne has 24% of the targets and 36% of the air yards over the last two games. That’s enough, even if 1-2 of George Kittle, Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall return, all with their own consistent issues of staying healthy. I would rather hold on to Bourne, benefit from his time with Jones and keep the long-term ceiling potential.
Advertisement
59.3%
Of snaps played for Tyjae Spears. Tony Pollard goes from bad to worse in fantasy as Spears seems to be fully back from his offseason injury. To make matters even worse, this was not only because of the game script, as Spears played 45% of the snaps in the first quarter before the Raiders jumped out to a 17-0 lead. We would expect Spears to be the receiving back going forward as well, as he passed Pollard’s season high in receptions with four on Sunday, on twice as many routes.
Whenever there is a (far) below-average offense in fantasy with a committee backfield, I’ll always suggest staying away. Spears has the higher potential of the two going forward, but neither will be startable without major improvements around them.
Advertisement
25.0%
David Montgomery’s RB touch percentage, the lowest since joining Detroit. Since 2023, Montgomery had one game with less than 35% of the team’s RB touches. This season, he’s hit under that mark in three out of six. In total, his RB touch percentage of 2024 has dropped from 47.9% when healthy (the exact same as Jahmyr Gibbs) to 39.2%, as Gibbs’ has risen to 58.2%. The worst part is, it wasn’t just Gibbs getting a large chunk of receiving in a passing-game script, but out-carrying Montgomery, 17-4.
The offseason rumors of Gibbs’ increased workload look true so far. Taking out Montgomery’s blow-up game versus Baltimore’s 32nd-ranked scoring defense, the Lions RB2 is averaging only 9.0 half-PPR PPG. The matchups get much harder going forward, starting with the Buccaneers in Week 7 before the Lions’ bye week.
